Oil Steadies Near $74/Barrel as OPEC+ Maintains Output Targets

Crude oil prices stabilised around $74 per barrel after OPEC+ ministers reaffirmed their existing production targets at a virtual meeting, providing reassurance to markets that had been concerned about potential supply increases. Brent crude settled at $74.20, while WTI closed at $70.85.

The International Energy Agency simultaneously revised its H2 2026 demand forecast upward by 400,000 barrels per day, citing stronger-than-expected industrial activity in China and India. The combination of steady supply and rising demand expectations put a floor under prices.

Key factors in play

• —OPEC+ production: unchanged at current voluntary cut levels through Q3 2026
• —IEA demand upgrade: +400K bpd for H2 2026
• —China industrial PMI: 51.2 in April, signalling expansion
• —India petroleum consumption: +8% YoY in Q1 2026
• —US shale production: slightly lower than Q4 2025 due to rig count reduction

The market has found equilibrium. Barring a significant macro shock, we see Brent trading in a $70–80 range for the remainder of 2026.